Scientists tracking the spread of bird flu are increasingly concerned that gaps in surveillance may keep them several steps behind a new pandemic, according to Reuters interviews with more than a dozen leading disease experts.
Many of them have been monitoring the new subtype of H5N1 avian flu in migratory birds since 2020. But the spread of the virus to 129 dairy herds in 12 U.S. states, opens new tab signals a change that could bring it closer to becoming transmissible between humans. Infections also have been found in other mammals, from alpacas to house cats.
“It almost seems like a pandemic unfolding in slow motion,” said Scott Hensley, a professor of microbiology at the University of Pennsylvania. “Right now, the threat is pretty low … but that could change in a heartbeat.” The earlier the warning of a jump to humans, the sooner global health officials can take steps to protect people by launching vaccine development, wide-scale testing and containment measures.
Don’t we have a bird flu vaccine already though?
What do you think the odds are of us getting people who refuse to take the Covid vaccine to take the bird flu vaccine?
Unvaccinated people become mutation factories and the disease mutates so that the vaccine is no longer effective, that’s why it’s important to have everyone vaccinated to prevent the outbreak from worsening.
If only 1/2 of people get the vaccine, we’re fucked.
I firmly believe when it comes to serious medical issues like this, personal freedom of choice can just go fuck itself.
You don’t want to be vaccinated? Too bad, we’ll tie you down and give it to you anyway.
I think H5N1’s 50% mortality rate would do most of the heavy lifting on that front, but people are dumb. Who knows.
How much would it mutate before it was through getting through those people to the point that the vaccine loses effectiveness? They’re a danger to us too.
I don’t have one. Do you?
Viruses evolve, some quite quickly. The flu isn’t the fastest (looking at you, HIV), but it’s up there. Over time, existing vaccines train your body to fight something that doesn’t quite match what’s in the wild (i.e. efficacy goes down with time). That’s why there’s a different seasonal flu vaccine every year.
They create flu vaccines on a yearly cycle, and a pandemic can kick off in a matter of weeks and months, so if it doesn’t match the preplanned cycle, they’ll have to invest more resources to creating the most up to date vaccine off-cycle.
I think similarly to a regular flu jab, there’s probably not one for this variant yet.
I was wrong, there are actually two vaccines ready to go if need be
That’s good to know. And if it is needed, we’ll be in for another self-selected culling of anti-vaxxers.
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I don’t know if it’s like other influenza vaccines, but their effectiveness could be a lot higher. That might be easier when we’re just talking about one specific strain. I don’t really know enough about the science.