Given the current state of partisan polarization, it’s unlikely Biden can get majority job approval next year even with the most fortunate set of circumstances. But the good news for him is that he probably doesn’t have to. Job-approval ratings are crucial indicators in a normal presidential reelection cycle that is basically a referendum on the incumbent’s record. Assuming Trump is the Republican nominee, 2024 will not be a normal reelection cycle for three reasons.
I think the most important metric for Biden and the Democrats in the upcoming us election is a blood pulse.
I would argue that some cognitive ability is required also, in order to perform at the debates. But Trump has already set the precedent that the front runner can ignore debates.
So the only metrics Biden needs to meet are
If he does all that, but keels over on Jan 21, his second term will still be a success.