Vantage Data House
app.vantagedatahouse.com

Hopium? This blog is suggesting an incredible margin of victory for Harris.

VDH is the website. They are outright calling respected meta-polls FiveThirtyEight and RCP completely wrong. Their overall argument is that the Senate-race is incredibly favored in the Democrat’s favor.

I don’t know if I necessarily believe that argument. But its still interesting to think about. Discuss?

  • dragontamer@lemmy.worldEnglish
    10·
    18 days ago

    Florida going for Harris is a huge wtf in this blog post. It’s a bold prediction far against every other poll I’ve seen.

    If Harris wins FL, then Trump is just completely fucked.

    Mind you: FL is basically Trump’s home state as New Yorkers dont like him, and Mar-a-lago resort was his main base of operation in 2016. I find it very unlikely for Trump to lose FL, even with all the points brought up in this blog post.

    • just_another_person@lemmy.world
      31·
      18 days ago

      Well, it makes sense, on one hand, but not in another.

      Where it makes sense:

      • the population centers are pro-Dem.
      • DeSantis is wildly unpopular with everybody.
      • FL businesses benefit from immigrant agriculture workers only second to CA.
      • Abortion is on the ballot

      Where it doesn’t make sense:

      • Gerrymandered County distribution basically makes electing Harris basically impossible right now
      • People have been moving away from the coastal cities
      • An influx of MAGA people moving to FL

      It’s less likely to happen. Not impossible. AZ is way more likely.