Not American, just a rabid follower of US Politics.
I think Dems are at a tactical disadvantage having had no one primary Biden. If god forbid anything happens between now and election day they have no one that the public knows well as backup. I watched Kamala Harris speak at Selma on the weekend; I support her as the first woman in her role but I am incredibly skeptical of her ability in any way shape or form to carry a general election.
Now Republicans have solved that problem by having a clear backup: Nikki Haley. I see there are reports right now that she is dropping out. She is, however, a viable and well-known backup due to her tenacity in staying in the race. If the GOP needed to rally behind a new candidate the cutover to her would be smoother because she has stayed in the spotlight.
When candidates drop out in our races, they often tell their supporters (including any delegates they may have accumulated) who to support instead. It looks like Haley will just “suspend” her campaign, and not give any endorsement at all to Trump.
This mainly gives her the upper hand in case Trump eats one hamburger too many between now and the Convention. As the only other candidate with pledged delegates, it makes it easier to gain the nomination when the delegates will be on their own to negotiate what candidate to nominate.
Even if Haley were to drop out and tell her delegates to support Trump, I don’t think the GOP would have issues rallying back to Haley if anything were to happen? Although Republicans also in shambles lately with infighting (Michigan Republican Party drama).
If Biden has to drop the Dems basically don’t have a campaign.
I think we’re saying the same thing but I don’t see Haley’s endorsement or lack thereof of the winning nominee as a roadblock for the GOP looping back around to her if they need to pivot quickly.
It has more to do with the arcane rules surrounding delegates, which are different between the parties. In the event Trump wins enough delegates to secure the nomination but is unable to accept due to an untimely event, Haley may be in the best position to take advantage of that if she is the only other candidate with delegates of her own. Most Republican primaries are winner-take- all, so Haley winning even a single State is significant. (By contrast, if Democrats worked by the same rules, then the “uncommitted” vote would not have earned any delegates.)
The entire Primary process puts a thin veneer of Democracy over what is very much an internal party process to select a candidate.
skeptical of her ability in any way shape or form to carry a general election.
Right, that’s the thing, who else? I’m sure there are great candidates, but they’re starting with much lower name recognition, much less national stature .
I really wanted it to be AOC, but she was vilified and fizzled out
Harris would be fine, but I don’t think her time as VP has helped her national status
who’s Buttegeig (and how do you spell his name?)?
While a Democratic Primary would have helped these other candidates, it could only hurt Biden.
I’ve followed more elections than most people here on Lemmy, and have always been able to say that I agree with one candidate more and disagree with the other more. But I’ve never before felt there’s a candidate that needs to be avoided at all cost, a candidate that is clearly un-American, a candidate that will do harm to pretty much whatever he touches, a candidate so self-centered and corrupt, a candidate so clearly unfit for anything more than reality show huckster
I like Gavin Newsom but that’s just my external perspective. Beto O’Rourke what happened to him? I liked him too.
It’s an interesting perspective that a primary would only hurt Biden. In a scenario where he dropped out do you think swing voters and Dems would happily pivot if they had already been presented with a good alternative or do you think they just wouldn’t vote or would vote R?
Listening to the Super Tuesday interviews with voters last night was nauseating. Comments like “I don’t want to vote for Trump so I’m backing Haley, but if it’s Trump Biden I’m not voting Biden.”
Or my favourite, “The economy was better under Trump.”
The economy is a lagging indicator - it turns slowly not on a dime. Do people not understand this? Obama worked to heal the mess left by the recession and Bush, chugged along, Trump elected - inherited the good economy left from the Obama years, Covid happened and messed everything up globally, Biden inherited THAT clusterfuck plus Ukraine plus Israel and it’s just starting to get back on its feet. Now these idiots are going to claim that it magically changes if the Republicans make it into office but that just doesn’t seem to be reality, again from an outside perspective.
It’s like in Canada - we’ve had our PM for several years now and they’re blaming economic factors on him that he has no control or jurisdiction over.
do you think swing voters and Dems would happily pivot if they had already been presented with a good alternative
It seems to always be in the hands of undecideds. Just under half the voters will usually vote for both parties, so it comes down to who gets the most swing voters to swing their way. Yes, I think someone less well known or less moderate will make more swing voters swing the other way.
It’s a pretty discouraging idea. My vote doesn’t count because I’m not a swing voter, and also doesn’t count because my state is not a swing state. There’s nothing you could do to make me vote for Trump and there’s almost nothing you can do to make my state’s electoral college vote Republican.
They all are though, aren’t they? Gotta get rid of Citizens United for that to change. Newsom just seems like he could appeal broadly. I love Bernie and AOC but they’re way too lefty for the US electorate.
Republicans have used a pretty successful system that generally picks a loser from the previous primary as the winner for the current one. Democrats seem to entirely abandon losing candidates.
Not American, just a rabid follower of US Politics.
I think Dems are at a tactical disadvantage having had no one primary Biden. If god forbid anything happens between now and election day they have no one that the public knows well as backup. I watched Kamala Harris speak at Selma on the weekend; I support her as the first woman in her role but I am incredibly skeptical of her ability in any way shape or form to carry a general election.
Now Republicans have solved that problem by having a clear backup: Nikki Haley. I see there are reports right now that she is dropping out. She is, however, a viable and well-known backup due to her tenacity in staying in the race. If the GOP needed to rally behind a new candidate the cutover to her would be smoother because she has stayed in the spotlight.
When candidates drop out in our races, they often tell their supporters (including any delegates they may have accumulated) who to support instead. It looks like Haley will just “suspend” her campaign, and not give any endorsement at all to Trump.
This mainly gives her the upper hand in case Trump eats one hamburger too many between now and the Convention. As the only other candidate with pledged delegates, it makes it easier to gain the nomination when the delegates will be on their own to negotiate what candidate to nominate.
Even if Haley were to drop out and tell her delegates to support Trump, I don’t think the GOP would have issues rallying back to Haley if anything were to happen? Although Republicans also in shambles lately with infighting (Michigan Republican Party drama).
If Biden has to drop the Dems basically don’t have a campaign.
I think we’re saying the same thing but I don’t see Haley’s endorsement or lack thereof of the winning nominee as a roadblock for the GOP looping back around to her if they need to pivot quickly.
It has more to do with the arcane rules surrounding delegates, which are different between the parties. In the event Trump wins enough delegates to secure the nomination but is unable to accept due to an untimely event, Haley may be in the best position to take advantage of that if she is the only other candidate with delegates of her own. Most Republican primaries are winner-take- all, so Haley winning even a single State is significant. (By contrast, if Democrats worked by the same rules, then the “uncommitted” vote would not have earned any delegates.)
The entire Primary process puts a thin veneer of Democracy over what is very much an internal party process to select a candidate.
Right, that’s the thing, who else? I’m sure there are great candidates, but they’re starting with much lower name recognition, much less national stature .
While a Democratic Primary would have helped these other candidates, it could only hurt Biden.
I’ve followed more elections than most people here on Lemmy, and have always been able to say that I agree with one candidate more and disagree with the other more. But I’ve never before felt there’s a candidate that needs to be avoided at all cost, a candidate that is clearly un-American, a candidate that will do harm to pretty much whatever he touches, a candidate so self-centered and corrupt, a candidate so clearly unfit for anything more than reality show huckster
I like Gavin Newsom but that’s just my external perspective. Beto O’Rourke what happened to him? I liked him too.
It’s an interesting perspective that a primary would only hurt Biden. In a scenario where he dropped out do you think swing voters and Dems would happily pivot if they had already been presented with a good alternative or do you think they just wouldn’t vote or would vote R?
Listening to the Super Tuesday interviews with voters last night was nauseating. Comments like “I don’t want to vote for Trump so I’m backing Haley, but if it’s Trump Biden I’m not voting Biden.”
Or my favourite, “The economy was better under Trump.”
The economy is a lagging indicator - it turns slowly not on a dime. Do people not understand this? Obama worked to heal the mess left by the recession and Bush, chugged along, Trump elected - inherited the good economy left from the Obama years, Covid happened and messed everything up globally, Biden inherited THAT clusterfuck plus Ukraine plus Israel and it’s just starting to get back on its feet. Now these idiots are going to claim that it magically changes if the Republicans make it into office but that just doesn’t seem to be reality, again from an outside perspective.
It’s like in Canada - we’ve had our PM for several years now and they’re blaming economic factors on him that he has no control or jurisdiction over.
It seems to always be in the hands of undecideds. Just under half the voters will usually vote for both parties, so it comes down to who gets the most swing voters to swing their way. Yes, I think someone less well known or less moderate will make more swing voters swing the other way.
It’s a pretty discouraging idea. My vote doesn’t count because I’m not a swing voter, and also doesn’t count because my state is not a swing state. There’s nothing you could do to make me vote for Trump and there’s almost nothing you can do to make my state’s electoral college vote Republican.
Newsom is just another corporate stooge. No one in California wants him to be president.
They all are though, aren’t they? Gotta get rid of Citizens United for that to change. Newsom just seems like he could appeal broadly. I love Bernie and AOC but they’re way too lefty for the US electorate.
It’s neat how “no matter who” never includes progressives.
Republicans have used a pretty successful system that generally picks a loser from the previous primary as the winner for the current one. Democrats seem to entirely abandon losing candidates.