- cross-posted to:
- avs
- cross-posted to:
- avs
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What’s the conversion of Elon years to real years?
I believe it involves impossible math, like dividing by 0
It will never be $30,000 or less. He did the same thing with the Model 3.
You really just can’t believe anything this guy says regarding his products.
He said $30,000 for the cybertruck too. $30,000 just seems to be his “I don’t really know the price” price.
Didn’t he say full self drive was two years away at least 5 years ago?
Try 10 years
Given Tesla’s usual build quality I feel like it’s pretty much inevitable that there are going to be an enormous amount of skull and limb injuries from those gullwing doors.
What mass transit program is Musk trying to disrupt now? (As he did California’s high speed rail with the Hyperloop.)
Dumbest car design yet Elon. Congrats. Nothing says cab like a coupe design with gullwing doors.
A cab with no driver is just an incredibly expensive gender neutral toilet. I shudder to think what will be done in these if they ever exist.
I can’t wait for another billion dollar company invading our cities with dumbass murder boxes.
“thanks for the honkshack” - Dirty melon husk and the boys
https://www.theverge.com/2024/8/11/24218134/waymo-parking-lot-livestream-honking-4am-san-francisco
Coming in 2, 2.5, 3, 3.5, oh whatever. In the future Ketamine Karen will introduce a new scam / con / road safety hazard!
In real people years or “we will be on mars soon” years?
In “self-driving by 2016” years
if he gets over his fear of lidar and stops trying to do everything with cameras this could actually work out … so basically this isn’t going to work out.
this could actually work out
No it won’t, Elon Next year Musk has promised Fully autonomous driving next year since 2016. He has sold his cars with subscriptions for FSD for years, despite it doesn’t work. It’s even illegal to call it FSD now, so Tesla has to call it assisted FSD, which is an oxymoron.
With this move, Enron Musk will more likely ensure the continued decline of Tesla. The Cybercab most likely will not be a moneymaker, and the focus on developing it, will detract from Tesla developing much needed new EV models, for a market with increasing competition.
Tesla is far from #1 in developing autonomous driving, so the chances are very slim that they would be even close to be first to market.
AFAIK this is pretty much the current rank:
-1 Waymo (Google)
-2 Mercedes
-3 Mobil Eye
-4 GM (Cruise)
-5 Baidu
-6 TeslaPossibly Nissan-Renault (WeRide) and Nvidia can match Tesla too.
Notice that Tesla used MobilEye originally up to 2016, but MobilEye ended the partnership after a Tesla model S had a fatal crash. I suspect the irresponsible claims implementation and practices by Elon Musk were too much.
Elon Musk is insane and a con man, to believe anything he claims about the future of his companies is naive.
Because Musk has a weird obsession that everything needs to work with just cameras, and no other sensors can help. While it might work someday in the far future with proper AGI (e.g Delamain from Cyberpunk 2077), until then it’s a pretty hopeless endeavour.
The problem is computer vision has a LONG way to go before it’s truly on par with human eyesight. Musk loves to crow how cameras are sufficient since we use our eyes to drive.
The thing is, eyes have special neural circuits that detect motion. They essentially filter out unnecessary information and send just the motion details to the brain. This prevents the brain from being overloaded with every detail the eye constantly sees.
And being overloaded with everything is exactly what computer vision currently does. It’s just a stream of images that the computer must analyze completely. So it’s working exactly opposite to how the eye & brain works.
Long way, but it’s not an impossible task, as at the core the eye is nothing but a bunch of light sensors that spit out a result, we just need to figure out how to calculate that result ourselves. Motion amplification could be one solution given enough computing power to do it in real time, for example.
But we agree, safe and accurate camera based self driving isn’t going to happen in a long, long time.
I’m not sure the approach Elon Musk has to developing self driving will ever work.
From what I’ve heard about how they “teach” the AI, it probably won’t, because loading massive amounts of new data is rewarded, but there is no proper qualitative control.
Man, how did Mobil Eye not just tack an “s” on the end? The pun is right there, and it’s frankly excellent and super topical to what they’re trying to do.
What benefit would a lidar bring that they haven’t already achieved with cameras and radar? The car not seeing where it’s going is not exactly an issue they’re having with FSD.
a lidar could tell the difference between a person on a bus billboard and a person. it brings 3d to a 2d party.
A lidar alone can’t do that. It’ll just build a 3D point cloud. You still need software to detect the individual objects in there and that’s easier said than done. So far Tesla seems to be achieving this just fine by using cameras alone. Human eyes can tell the difference between an actual person and a picture of a person too. I don’t see how this is supposed to be somethin you can’t do with just cameras.
So far Tesla seems to be achieving this just fine by using cameras alone.
Funny, last I heard, Tesla FSD has a tendency to run into motorcycles.
With lidar there would be no doubt that there is an actual object, and obviously you don’t drive into it.are the tesla cameras 3D?
No, and neither are your eyes, but you can still see the world in 3D.
You can use normal cameras to create 3D images by placing two cameras next to each other and creating a stereogram. Alternatively, you can do this with just one camera by taking a photo, moving it slightly, and then taking another photo - exactly what cameras in a moving vehicle are doing all the time. Objects closer to the camera move differently than the background. If you have a billboard with a person on it, the background in that picture moves differently relative to the person than the background behind an actual person would.
I’ve heard this one before… Musk has proven himself an untrustworthy bad faith actor who lies constantly about many things, especially self-driving Teslas.
Now he’s a right-wing loon because he thinks they will let him get away with fraud. He acts like he’s on a speed run to ruin his own credibility.
Oh. So “unveiling” doesn’t mean they have something. Just the “2 years” promise is repeated for the N’th time ;-)
Normally it’s always promised next year, so a 2 year deadline means the project is in serious trouble.
That’s true, he’s been saying 6 months or a year for Full Self Driving for almost 10 years now.
Its name is still not clear. Prior to the event, Musk referred to it as both ‘Cybercab’ and ‘Robotaxi’.
Couldn’t even decide a name and everything is 3d render. Add 3 years at least to the existing estimation. At least they didn’t have a toy rc as a representation, like their announcement of the robot.
Musk said that Cybercab is equipped with Tesla’s AI5 onboard computer and based on a visual check, it appears to only use cameras, like Tesla’s existing vehicles.
Gonna add another 1 year to it. Cybertruck didn’t even have full autopilot yet, and required the car to be babyseated. Steering-less car that only use camera for their autopilot is gonna be a disaster.
Steering-less car that only use camera for their autopilot is gonna be a disaster.
A disaster using camera only for autopilot? Tesla FSD supervised has been successfully operating in consumer vehicles using cameras only for a couple years now. FSD software for the last several months has been performing phenomenally. If you take a ride in one it’s not hard at all to see how it could operate fully autonomously even within the next year.
A disaster using camera only for autopilot?
A disaster for steering-less, unsupervised autopilot car. There’s a difference.
If you take a ride in one it’s not hard at all to see how it could operate fully autonomously even within the next year.
I’ve have faith before when CGP Grey simp so much on Tesla autopilot several years ago, but that faith waned so hard after several mishap and death. Yes, it’s gonna be fully autopilot like before, but it would need to be supervised as always.
In the case of steering-less tesla, there’s no backup driver to prevent this.
Sure, I hear you, you’ve lost faith. Sounds like this happened over years which is understandable given the prolonged timelines and failed promises. What makes you think that the system will always need to be supervised? Any new technology can experience hurdles, but can you elaborate on
several mishap and deaths
? Things may happen once in a while for a completely new technology involving vehicles and driving, but for the long term it is a necessary step to develop something that can save countless more lives. Chances are, you are either currently on, or have tried a drug or medication that has lead to numerous deaths and permanent disability during its workup and development. Did you lose faith in medicine and avoid it, or did you take the drug despite the incredibly rare risk of death?
It seems that your attitude about the current situation was formed years ago. Definitely worth a second look and seeing for yourself, as the supervising driver, if you are not yet aware of the improvement and the current state of the software.
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Johnny cab hopes you enjoyed the ride
Fully self driving too! Snerk.
At first, i was staunchly against this as i am onboard the Fuck Tesla and Musk train.
However, electric auto-taxis would be great in addition to mass transport.Fuck Musk, btw
Agreed. Although they started the show by showing a slide of how shit subways are… so I don’t think it is in Teslas interest to be an addition to mass transport. And they themselves walk a fine line between selling a consumercar or just reinventing buses
They would, but don’t expect it from Tesla. Other companies are making actual, real progress while Musk continues kicking the can down the road with bold promises and no timelines.
Where I live, there is a bus driver shortage leading to cancelled buses and limited service. Cyber cab, van or bus that runs the route outside of peak hours to give 24/7 service and monitor routes would be a big help. And it’s a fixed route so the system can be optimized for those.
