I’ve seen people dismiss this as an old, out of date prediction from the 70s, unaware that… its been revisited and updated, and is tracking reality … scarily accurately, basically.
(Recalibration23 is this paper, BAU is an older, but still fairly recent recalibration of the World3 model.)
So basically, we, right now, are either at, very close to, or have already surpassed:
Peak Industrial Output
Peak Food Production
Peak Human Population
These things all rapidly decline, or collapse, starting basically now.
HWI = Human Welfare Index.
The average living human in 2035 will have a quality of life comparable to the average human in about 1965.
Average human QoL in 2050 will be comparable to average human QoL during the Great Depression / WW2.
Oh good, you posted an updated version!
I’ve seen people dismiss this as an old, out of date prediction from the 70s, unaware that… its been revisited and updated, and is tracking reality … scarily accurately, basically.
(Recalibration23 is this paper, BAU is an older, but still fairly recent recalibration of the World3 model.)
So basically, we, right now, are either at, very close to, or have already surpassed:
Peak Industrial Output
Peak Food Production
Peak Human Population
These things all rapidly decline, or collapse, starting basically now.
HWI = Human Welfare Index.
The average living human in 2035 will have a quality of life comparable to the average human in about 1965.
Average human QoL in 2050 will be comparable to average human QoL during the Great Depression / WW2.
… Good luck everybody! Have fun at work today!
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