Ukraine plinking a Russian GPS-jammer with a GPS-guided bomb. Ukrainian drones blowing up Russian drone-jammers. Ukraine’s cruise missiles striking Russian air-defense sites whose missions include, you guessed it, shooting down cruise missiles.
Russia’s 23-month wider war on Ukraine has seen a lot of ironic, darkly-hilarious clashes. The latest was also one of the quickest between setup and punchline.
On Tuesday morning, Russian media announced the deployment, to Ukraine, of Russian forces’ latest high-tech counterbattery radar. A few hours later in southern Ukraine, the Ukrainians blew it up … with artillery rockets.
The irony deepens. In theory, a Russian Yastreb-AV radar would help to protect Russian troops from Ukraine’s American-made High-Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems launchers—its HIMARS. Now guess what the Ukrainians used to destroy that first Yastreb-AV.
That’s right: HIMARS.
The problem is, Putin doesn’t care.
Yes, they are suffering way more losses, but they still got plenty of troops to throw against.
The Russians have gone through the conscripts. They’ve gone through the criminals. They’re now on to Ukrainian PoWs and international conscripts.
The Ukrainian force is still Ukrainian.
Not at these loss ratios, it’s legitimately unsustainable even with more mobilisation. And mobilisation is really bad for his domestic stability, so he’ll avoid it if he can.
At the moment there’s not really much anyone can do to change his mind. There’s people who are saying that western long-term contracts would help, but I doubt it: He’d see it as just another propaganda move, thinking the rule of law is a front. It would help with gearing up production, though, especially when it comes to ammunition: No producer is going to build a factory for a low-volume contract, gotta be at least five years worth of production or such.
No, they’re in big trouble. Putin is gambling that he can hang on long enough for Trump to save him, but Russia is already facing demographic collapse as well as a massive brain drain from the younger generations. Things are pretty dire and there are a lot of powerful people in Russia who know it.