If we consider past global conflicts like WW2 they were often preceded by global economic collapse. Once people starve, things become unstable and hawkish hardliners may step in to replace more moderate doves. War is then a way to deflect from leadership failures. Hence WW3.
I have no idea how it would be triggered, but do you people think this global economic collapse has set the stage for global war?
disclaimer: no politics intended!
maybe wrong: When all countries become more isolationist, there is no WW3. But if one country is expansionist, while all others are isolationist, yes.
No politics intended
I don’t think you can discuss the global political landscape without talking politics.
It was never just financial collapse -> war starts. Global politics drove war
Market reflects uncertainty and fear (or their exact opposite: hope and confidence) it doesn’t cause them to begin with. So, no.
Could a poorly thought-out and poorly applied economical and radical geopolitical policy change bring the world closer to some kind of war(s)? Sure. It already did so in only 3 months.
For the first time in almost 80 years I see moderate people in my country, France, not radical anti-americans, real moderates, considering the USA as the real threat to our security and to world peace (and I may include myself in that count)… I would not be surprised the feeling was kinda similar, if not much worse, for Canadians, Greenlanders and, quite obviously, for Ukrainians.
The market crash is a symptom.
A possible world war is another symptom.
IMHO both have the same cause, but they are not the cause for each other.
Not OP but I’ll leave this comment on their behalf, why does that change what OP was asking? They didn’t ask if one cause the other just if one thing could lead to another. Wouldn’t one symptom like a market crash happening first, then be followed by the other symptom being the ww3 still qualify under OP’s question? Regardless if they share the same cause. Or am I looking at it wrong?
To elaborate on my rake of the question: The genocide of jews by Germany caused ww2. A symptom was the active engagement in the pacific, aka pearl harbor, which had the symptom of the US joining the war in full force.
The tariffs in the eyes of the markets is no different than the grand opening of rhe covid pandemic. Tons of uncertainties, tons of money moving around, all causing markets to crash or semi-crash like they are now.
*Quick side bar of my own oppinion, I don’t think they’ve dropped enough to meet the criteria to be considered a crash but I could be wrong. I’ll google it and edit accordingly if im wrong tho. Personally I know the tariffs are idiotic but anyone calling doomsday or market crash over a 3 month drop accross the board shouldnt be wasting money investing their own money and should leave it up to professionals.
Regardless of which idiot is at the reigns, what catastrophe is happening, if you looking at your investments every three months, you are not investing you are gambling. The entire financial institution as an industry is going to make fuck you money off this dip. It’s literally why it’s dipping, it’s call mitigating losses by rolling your investments according to their capital gains tax priority. Every financial firm right now is selling on Monday and buying the same fucking stock back at a cheaper price and at a higher volume. They’ll continue losing money but at a lesser rate of loss with higher intrinsic value because they’re bulking their portfolio at the same time.
I barely know dick about investing but I know enough to say market movement does not need an economic movement to follow. We can have sorting inflation, rising cost of living, annual raise %'s less than the % of inflation and at the same time the markets could be soring. It’s literally been happening to the nasdaq big tech industry which is large enough to prop the markets thru whatever rhe economy throws at it.
The pandemic was a fuckin crash. That shit was fuckin wild. And still i wanna say it was back to hitting ATH’s by the end of Bidens 1st year.
Its because markets not giving a fuck about any country’s economic wellbeing, who is in office, and especially because it sure as shit doesn’t give a fuck about any individual investor are all parts of why I don’t think the current state of the markets will lead to any radical military action from any country.
My tldr of my answer to the og original OP’s question is:
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Markets not giving a fuck about any country’s economic wellbeing, who is in office, and especially because it sure as shit doesn’t give a fuck about any individual investor are not opinions they are well documented statements of fact. All the individual investors in the word no longer hold enough market share to influence what the markets do anymore, markets are unaffected by who was elected president and my citation is to ask any financial advisor, and we just saw that the economy can go to the shitter but markets didn’t move till the variable of tariffs were introduced.
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A global scale war can only happen when there are enough solder committed to the fight. That’s just my opinion. You can implement as many drafts as you want but until the solders have reason for themselves to fight you’ll only end up with shit like Vietnam, Iraq, and Ukraine. All wars but all without any drive for the soldiers to fight for. It’s because of my first point that I don’t think what the markets do will affect people’s mind set enough to charge the beaches of Normandy.
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The nail in the coffin for the market dropping causing war is the fact that the quality of everyday life hasn’t gotten so bad that they would be willing to risk their life yet. Sounds morbid to say but now that we’ve seen the markets have detached from its dependency of economic growth or needing joeshmoe to invest in shit to keep the markets up I feel confident in my opinion.
Plus, who in the flying fuckwants to fight in a war when they can juat fight anonymously on the internet?loljkjk
Edit: stupid fucking ai autocorrect apparently likes to correct the proper spelling of soldiers to solder🙄 Fuck it I’m leaving it lol
I’ll leave this comment on their behalf,
o.m.g… is OP that unable?
why does that change what OP was asking?
No.
I do not change the question, I just tell my answer.
Tldr all the rest for good.
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There were many events over the last few years that brought us closer to a potential WW3, but I don’t think the market crash will play a major role in that regard, no.
I thinks it’s less of the market playing a role and more of being a sign that we are getting even closer.
No
I’d sooner believe it’d start a more domestic dispute. Worst case scenario: civil war
