| Party Name | Seats (Current) | Seats Change | Percentage (Current) | Percentage Change | Majority Probability | Minority Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liberal | 183 | +23 | 43.6% | +11% | 70.5% | 15.7% |
| Conservative | 138 | +19 | 43.2% | +9.5% | 5.7% | 8.1% |
| Bloc | 14 | -18 | 3.5% | -4.1% | 0% | 0% |
| New Democrat | 6 | -19 | 6.2% | -11.6% | N/A | N/A |
An amazing number of people think “I’m mad at Liberals” = “The cons must be better”
“I’m mad at the Liberals”
NDP support crashes.
“I like this new Liberal guy!”
NDP support crashes.
There’s more to the dynamic than just “Liberals bad”.