Major study finds world's most productive farming regions are especially vulnerable to rising temperatures, and face steep declines in agricultural output this century.

The world’s most productive agricultural regions face the greatest losses from climate change, with major farming areas in wealthy nations potentially losing as much as 40% of their maize and wheat production this century, a comprehensive new study has found.

In their analysis of more than 12,000 regions across 55 countries, a team of researchers from top U.S. and international institutions found that for every 1°C increase in global temperature, global food production could decline by approximately 120 calories per person per day—equivalent to 4.4% of current daily consumption.

The study, published in Nature, reveals that even when so-called climate adaptation strategies are undertaken, “breadbasket” regions are particularly vulnerable, and will face substantial reductions in the production of most key food crops, presenting a concerning outlook for global food security.