Non-paywall article link: https://web.archive.org/web/20250424155129/https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/article-federal-election-2025-pierre-poilievre-seat-ottawa-carleton-riding/

And full text:

Poilievre may lose his Ottawa-area riding as Liberals poised to sweep the region Robert Fife Ottawa

Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre is at risk of losing his Ottawa-area riding as the party scrambles to send in volunteers to save the seat he has held since 2004, two federal and two provincial Conservative sources say.

With several polls showing the Liberals poised to win the election, the loss of Mr. Poilievre’s Carleton riding would make it difficult for him to hang on to his federal party leadership post.

Party headquarters has for the past two weeks been sending workers into Mr. Poilievre’s riding, including experienced campaigners who would normally be assigned to tight races across the country, the four sources told The Globe and Mail.

The Globe is not identifying the Conservative sources, two of whom are from the Ontario Progressive Conservative Party, because they were not authorized to discuss the Conservative campaign or internal polling.

They say the Poilievre Conservatives are also deploying troops from the party’s Ottawa war room to Conservative-held ridings, a sign in the final days of the campaign that the party may be poised to lose seats to the Mark Carney-led Liberals. It is standard practice in the final week of a campaign for war-room staff to be sent to ridings that are either vulnerable or have the chance of an upset victory.

The two sources from the Ontario party, and a senior federal Liberal, all with access to internal polling, say that Mr. Poilievre is in a dead heat with Liberal candidate Bruce Fanjoy in Carleton, a riding the Conservative Leader won with 52 per cent of the vote in 2021 and 46 per cent in 2019.

The Globe is not identifying the Liberal source, who was not authorized to discuss internal polling numbers.

The two sources in the Ontario PC Party say an internal poll completed Tuesday shows the Liberals hold a 53-per-cent advantage in Ottawa-area ridings, with the Conservatives at 31 per cent and the NDP at 10 per cent. The Doug Ford-led party did not poll in Carleton.

However, the senior federal Liberal insider said the Liberals have polled in the riding and Mr. Fanjoy is in a dead heat with Mr. Poilievre, at 48 per cent and 49 per cent, respectively. The Liberals polled 381 people and the results have a margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Mr. Poilievre’s riding is one of 290 districts with boundaries that have changed since the past election, in 2021. But a Globe analysis of the new boundaries shows that they would not have had an impact on the results had they been in place in 2021.

Former Conservative Senate leader Marjory LeBreton, who served in Stephen Harper’s cabinet and, before that, had worked for every party leader since John Diefenbaker, said Mr. Poilievre can’t survive as leader if he loses the federal election.

“If Pierre has the same results as we had under Erin O’Toole and Andrew Scheer and he loses his riding as well, all hell will break loose. The party will fracture,” said Ms. LeBreton, who served in Mr. Poilievre’s riding association. She resigned over Mr. Poilievre’s support of the trucker convoy on Parliament Hill.

“It’s a sad day for the party that this has happened,” Ms. LeBreton said.

Provincially, Ontario PC polling numbers have the federal Liberals at 50 per cent compared with 36 per cent for the Conservatives and 9 per cent for the NDP. The poll was of 3,000 Ontario voters.

Federal Conservative Party spokesman Simon Jefferies played down concerns that Mr. Poilievre is in danger of losing the riding. “No, of course not. No riding is ever taken for granted but we are confident Pierre Poilievre will be returned to Parliament to represent Carleton,” he said. “There are many politically engaged volunteers and staff across the capital region. They are being distributed to all Ottawa ridings.”

Pollster Nik Nanos, chief data scientist at Nanos Research, said Mr. Poilievre cannot stay on as leader if he loses the election, let alone his own riding.

“Let’s face it, there are going to be a lot of Conservatives who will not forget that he had a 27-per-cent advantage and people point to his personal lack of popularity,” Mr. Nanos said. “His message for change is popular but they are not enthusiastic about him.”

In the recent Ontario provincial election, where Mr. Ford won a third majority government, the PCs barely held the provincial riding that overlaps with Mr. Poilievre’s.

In the waning days of the federal campaign, Mr. Poilievre appears to be playing defence. He is scheduled to hold a rally in Saskatoon on Thursday, a week after the Liberal Leader campaigned in the city.

Saskatoon last elected a Liberal MP in 1993, but a recent provincial poll suggested a resurgence and the possibility of breaking the Conservative Party’s dominance of the city’s three seats. The Liberals last won a seat in Saskatchewan in 2015, in Regina.

Canadians will elect a new government on April 28.

The latest Nanos Research survey, conducted for The Globe and Mail and CTV, shows that nationally the Liberals are in front at 44.1 per cent, followed by the Conservatives at 38.5 per cent and the NDP at 8 per cent.

The national survey of 1,200 adults is based on a three-day rolling sample of 400 individuals, ending Tuesday. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.7 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. Respondents were asked: “For those parties you would consider voting for federally, could you please rank your top two current local preferences?” The full methodology for all surveys can be found at: tgam.ca/polls.