The Soviet Union, nearly a century ago, signed a non-aggression pact with Nazi Germany.They knew that otherwise they would’ve risked the Western states aligning with the Nazis had they entered an earlier war with Germany, or generally been more aggressive in their foreign policy. It allowed them to diplomatically play the imperialist powers against eachother, dividing them, thus weakening them.

An analogy can be made regarding the strategy of China and the states loosely aligned with them. They’ve showed openness towards further cooperation with the European powers, possibly dividing them and the Americans, rather than adopting an aggressive posture and surely uniting the imperialist states in opposition to them. They, with the ever more erratic nature of the U.S., have an excellent opportunity to isolate Washington from the rest of the Western bloc. Why would we want them to throw away that opportunity? In fact, we must, in full force, support the furthering of diplomatic, economic and possibly military ties with each of the imperialist states, precisely in order to divide them. As with the strategy of V. Molotov and the Soviet Union more generally, this is not done out of some ideological affinity, but out of necessity.

Though in a weakened state, the forces of the West combined will prove formidable. Even if they lose their confrontation with China and the rest, they will have already done insurmountable amounts of damage, worse than anything humanity had seen prior.

Again, imagine if the Soviet Union, in their time, hadn’t done what they did. If the Soviet Union, seeing the atrocities committed by the Fascist powers in both Germany and Italy and the petty dictatorships of Poland, the Baltics, Hungary, Austria, and the Balkan monarchies, had decided to strike first. To march to Berlin alone, it would’ve meant total destruction.

Operation Barbarossa would’ve undoubtedly been successful. Fronts would’ve been opened up by Iran and Afghanistan in central Asia, the far eastern parts of the Union by Japan and the U.S. and in the southern Caucuses by Turkey. The ill prepared armies of the Soviet Union would’ve been crushed and the land, along with its people, subjugated. Now, imagine how this would play out today.

China invades Taiwan, or Iran, along with its allies, starts a full scale war against Israel. All of the “non-aligned” states, (Saudi Arabia, India, Egypt, etc) immediately join the war on the side of the West. Thus potential allies are alienated, turning the tides of the conflict to be in favour of the Western powers, something that is completely avoidable. They would squander their opportunity to bide their time, develop relations, economic and political, that would entice Western allies and “non-aligned” states to side with them. I won’t play out this conflict in its entirety, i am sure you already understand what I’m getting at here with this short introduction.

However ugly it is, to see the horrors committed by the West and stand by idly, to charge idealistically into battle, this would force on us even greater horrors. It would be a fatal error.

  • sodium_nitride [any, any]@hexbear.net
    link
    fedilink
    English
    arrow-up
    11
    ·
    edit-2
    10 days ago

    Letting the US make the first strike against the EU or Canada (by acting on their annexation fantasies) would certainly be the correct option. The Chinese strategy here is correct to try to pry the EU away from the US.

    However, why would this apply to Iran? What greater level of aggression does Israel have to display before the middle eastern comprador states somehow decide to side with Iran against the west?

    In fact, the comprador states going to war with Iran to defend Israel would be a catastrophic error for them on a political level. It would be the PR equivalent of the EU deciding to help Russia in their campaign against Ukraine.

    Furthermore, the US is actively gearing up to go to war with Iran, which places a severe time constraint on this strategy.

    • PostyourJaggaHogs [undecided]@hexbear.net
      link
      fedilink
      English
      arrow-up
      9
      ·
      10 days ago

      Unfortunately it’s been demonstrated to this date that Israel’s level of aggression towards the Palestinians and Arabs more broadly is not the primary concern amongst Western states. I think what this poster is getting at is that as the liberation movement continues to push back on the terror, the Israeli economy will be further disrupted, exports will fall, and Israel will have no alternative but to continue their Lebensraum towards Turkey in order to inject more money into their failing state. As they become more overtly expansionist and schizophrenic in their politics and their exports continue to fall, the EU will begin to lose incentive to associate with them, especially if their new trade partner China leans on them to dissociate. Is the theory at least.

      • sodium_nitride [any, any]@hexbear.net
        link
        fedilink
        English
        arrow-up
        9
        ·
        10 days ago

        The problem for Iran is that

        1. The US wants to invade them ASAP
        2. No member of the imperialist bloc will conceivably help Iran in the near future

        At best, you might have a back and forth of missle exchanges between Turkey and Israel that the imperialist bloc works to de-escalate (just like it did with Iran last year)