Image is of destruction and damage inside Israel, sourced from this article.


Iran and Israel have struck each other many times over the last few days. There has been a general focus on military facilities and headquarters by both sides, though Israel has also struck oil facilities, civilian structures and hospitals, and in return for this, Iran has struck major scientific centers and the Haifa oil facilities.

Israel appears to have three main aims. First, to collapse the Iranian state, either through shock and breakdown by killing enough senior officials, or via some sort of internal military coup. Second, to try and destroy Iranian nuclear sites and underground missile cities, or at least to paralyze them long enough to achieve the first and third goals. And third, to bring the US into a direct conflict with Iran. This is because the US better equipped to fight them than Israel is (though victory would still not be guaranteed depending on what Iran chooses to do).

Iranian nuclear facilities are hidden deep underground (800 meters), far beyond the depth range of even the most powerful bunker busters (~70 meters or so), and built such that the visible ground entrances are horizontally far away in an unknown direction from the actual underground chambers. Only an extremely competent full-scale American bombing force all simultaneously using multiple of the most powerful conventional (perhaps even nuclear) bunker busters could even hypothetically hope to breach them (and we have seen how, in practice, American bunker busters have largely failed to impair or deter Ansarallah). There are several analysts on both sides who have concluded that it is entirely impossible to physically prevent Iran from building nukes.

I fully expect the US to join the war. I believe the current ambiguity is a deliberate invention of the US while they work to move their military assets into position, and as soon as they are ready, the US will start bombing Iran. After that, Iran’s leadership must - if they haven’t already - harden their hearts, and strike back with no fear, or risk following the path of Libya, Syria, and Iraq, either into either surrender, occupation, or annihilation. Every day where they do not possess a nuke is a day where lives are being lost and cities are being bombed.


Last week’s thread is here.
The Imperialism Reading Group is here.

Please check out the RedAtlas!

The bulletins site is here. Currently not used.
The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.

Israel-Palestine Conflict

If you have evidence of Israeli crimes and atrocities that you wish to preserve, there is a thread here in which to do so.

Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:

UNRWA reports on Israel’s destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.

English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.

English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Sources:

Defense Politics Asia’s youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don’t want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it’s just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists’ side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR’s former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR’s forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster’s telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a ‘propaganda tax’, if you don’t believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:

Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.


  • sexywheat [none/use name]@hexbear.net
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    14 hours ago

    WTF? What you describe seems entirely unsustainable. Surely the political leadership is aware of these issues? What are they going to do about this?

    IIRC you’ve also mentioned in other posts that social welfare in China is quite anemic. What is the point of building all those automated factories if it’s just going to result in more unemployment?

    This all seems entirely at odds with the goals of a socialist project.

    • xiaohongshu [none/use name]@hexbear.net
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      12 hours ago

      The leadership is well aware of the situation. These figures are openly discussed and reported in the media.

      However, the situation is very complex and requires the length of multiple effort posts. Let me just give you one example: the central government has limited control over employment and wages. They can raise wages of civil servants and SOE employees but that’s only ~70 million of the total workforce in China. The rest are in private sector, which Xi has just vowed to protect (after spending a decade trying to curb private capital, a reversal of his former position) as many in the leadership believes that the government bureaucracy is “too inefficient” and that true innovation and the driver of economic growth have to come from private sector. So we are unlikely to see an expansion of the public sector.

      While the government has been very competent in managing acute crises through macro-policy adjustments, as evident by the absence of financial crises that spiraled out of control e.g. the scale of the subprime mortgage crisis in the US in 2007. However, the lack of long-term strategic planning at the national level is starting to show. Such deficiency had been mostly obscured during the property and infrastructure investment boom over the past decade, but the triple crises as a result of Covid, property market bubble bursting and the tariffs imposed by the US and the EU on Chinese godos have begun to expose the innate problems associated with the economic model in China:

      The decentralized nature of the Chinese economy meant that local governments have a lot of authorities (and responsibilities), whose revenues rely primarily on land revenue and value-added tax. Such budgeting structure dictated that the property market and the manufacturing sector be prioritized at the expense of other sectors and programs. Massive subsidies had been given to property developers and green tech industries (e.g. EV, solar panels) since these sectors have been announced as a national economic priority in the 14th Five-Year Plan. The lack of strategic planning at the national level resulted in local governments competing with one another to court the companies with the most favorable subsidies/tax breaks.

      Of course, these subsidies had to come from somewhere, and created a huge flow of wealth into the hands of the rich. And you can imagine what is happening right now as the property market is imploding, the solar panel industry is taking record losses and the EV exports are being fenced off by foreign tariffs - so much had been invested into these sectors that the local governments have no choice but to keep propping them up, or else their budgetary situation (again, relying on land revenue and value-added tax) would face an impending crisis.

      This is why the entire system needs to be revamped, not just a re-distribution of wealth (as noted above, such inequality is structural due to how the local governments financing works) and fighting corruption that is already endemic, but a re-delineation of the responsibilities and authorities between central and local governments, curbing the over-reliance on export industries, and most importantly, massive revamp on the monetary system to institute debt cancellation/restructuring, and to allow the central government the ability to create large deficits instead of relying on accumulation of foreign currencies to expand its monetary base.

      I know this went a long and meandering way instead of just answering the question in a straightforward manner, but there really is no simple answer here. The entire issue is complex and has to be treated as such.