Image is sourced from this article depicting the 28th ASEAN Plus Three Summit, which took place at the same time as the 47th ASEAN Summit.

Last week concluded the 47th summit of ASEAN in Malaysia as well as a swathe of concurrent summits surrounding ASEAN. For those unfamiliar, formally, China is not a member of ASEAN, but is part of the ASEAN Plus Three (as part of the “Three”, alongside Japan and Occupied Southern Korea). And while not really ASEAN, there is also a yet wider organization, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, which tacks on Australia and New Zealand to the group of countries that are currently in ASEAN (which is the single largest trade bloc on the planet). At the summit, Timor-Leste was officially introduced into ASEAN, making it the 11th country to do and the first since Cambodia in 1999.

Many important figures throughout Asia, as well as Trump, Ramaphosa, and Lula, attended the event. As you can imagine, Trump’s appearance was not exactly positive - signing four rather coerced bilateral deals there, including with Malaysia, which forced those countries to buy American goods in exchange for certain exemptions from Trump’s high tariff regime. The US is currently in a bit of a panic due to China restricting access to rare earths, a critical component of many weapons technologies (and electronics in general) and is looking around for countries to help supply them. After the summit, the US and China signed a deal related to tariffs and rare earths, but it seems very unlikely that this is the end of the saga; the US politically, economically, and militarily cannot tolerate China’s existence as a sovereign actor and will try to overcome them until the American Empire topples.

Meanwhile, China did as they ordinarily do, and urged higher regional integration and trade without high tariffs, as well as adherence to the Global Governance Initiative (which, as we here never tire of noting, is an interesting thing to try and encourage while the US only more feverishly violates the sovereignty of nations everywhere). One hopes they’re supplying a bit more than just speeches to Venezuela, Cuba, and beyond, as the US prepares to start bombing.

Last week’s thread is here.
The Imperialism Reading Group is here.

Please check out the RedAtlas!

The bulletins site is here. Currently not used.
The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.

The Zionist Entity's Genocide of Palestine

If you have evidence of Zionist crimes and atrocities that you wish to preserve, there is a thread here in which to do so.

Sources on the fighting in Palestine against the temporary Zionist entity. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:

UNRWA reports on Israel’s destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.

English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.

English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Sources:

Defense Politics Asia’s youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don’t want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it’s just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists’ side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR’s former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR’s forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster’s telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a ‘propaganda tax’, if you don’t believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:

Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.

  • xiaohongshu [none/use name]@hexbear.netEnglish
    43·
    15 days ago

    Today’s Naked Capitalism link but this should come as no surprise if you have been following what I said about China’s marked liberal turn in policies since last September - coincidentally, right after the Fed first cut its rate since 2022.

    It’s a clear signal that China wants the US to return to the status quo, but will the US bite?

    If Trump insists on reducing the US trade deficit, then dollar hegemony will have to be sustained via foreign direct investment. We could be seeing a shift in the export of dollar towards investment while the trade deficit is cut back.

    China to embrace free market, free trade and import more: Premier Li Economic Times

    Chinese Premier Li Qiang on Wednesday called for embracing free markets and pledged to open China’s consumer market after Beijing and Washington reached a trade deal, raising expectations of normalcy in the restoration of global supply chains.

    “At a time when the world economy is slowing down and international disputes are intensifying, we must all the more adhere to equal and mutually beneficial cooperation, embrace free markets and free trade, and resolve cross-border contradictions and problems through joint development,” Li said.

    He was speaking at the opening ceremony of the eighth China International Import Expo (CIIE) and the Hongqiao International Economic Forum in Shanghai.

    “China is willing to work with all parties to create an open and inclusive development environment, enhance the level of trade and investment liberalisation and facilitation, ensure the stability and smooth operation of global industrial and supply chains, and better gather momentum for economic development,” he said.

    He said China’s economic scale in the next five years was projected to exceed 170 trillion yuan (USD 23.9 trillion).

    China will steadfastly advance high-level opening-up to the outside world, he was quoted as saying by the Hong Kong-based South China Morning Post.

    …

    Ahead of the final agreement, China has agreed to lift the ban on the exports of rare earth metals - much needed for the US defence industry - and resume imports of US soybeans.

    Trump signed an executive order to roll back 10 per cent of the “fentanyl tariffs” imposed on China. Both sides officially extended the tariff truce they had agreed on the “reciprocal tariffs” for one year.

    Li visited pavilions set up by some US companies after the opening ceremony, sending a clear signal to American and global businesses that the Chinese market would still be fully open to them amid the de-escalation of the trade war between the world’s two largest economies, the Post reported.

    Li, however, condemned the rise of tariffs in international trade without naming the US, noting that they had “seriously undermined international economic and trade rules and disrupted the normal operations of enterprises” in various countries.

    China, which continued to be an export-dependent economy, grappled with slow growth of domestic consumption as the Chinese were reluctant to spend due to concerns over job prospects and a poor economic outlook.

    This year’s CIIE sets a new record in scale, featuring over 4,100 foreign exhibitors from more than 150 countries and regions, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning told a media briefing in Beijing.

    China will continue its effort of expanding and opening up so as to share the opportunities of China’s mega market with the world, she said.

      • xiaohongshu [none/use name]@hexbear.netEnglish
        40·
        15 days ago

        If you ask me, I think Covid really changed the game. Nobody really saw the aftermath coming. It was unfathomable just a few years back that we could see an economic downturn so fast, even though the property market bubble had been raising alarms.

        Back in April 2020, when Xi’s Dual Circulation strategy (external trade balanced by internal consumption) was rolled out, it was expected to sustain an annual 8% growth rate over the next 20-30 years (!!).

        Today, with the new FYP rolling out, the goal is to maintain 4.17% annual growth until the 2035 target of long-term development.

        The disparity is wild, when you consider that the annual growth rate is exponential. A 4% differential means a 50% difference over 10 years! So the government has effectively cut its own anticipated economic growth by half over the next 10 years.

        • geikei [none/use name]@hexbear.netEnglish
          11·
          15 days ago

          i would be interested to see how and when and by who this “government expectation of 8% growth for the next 30 years” was formulated and endorsed. Because framing it as “this was the projection of the chinese government” carries an enormous amount of weight. Not some article or statement by whatever associated economist. The closest i found is this https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/incoming/adviser-reckons-china-can-achieve-constant-growth-8 from 2013 and it wasnt by someone too important and there was pushback against it even then .

          China’s growth was already slowly trending downwards and plateauing at 6% for an entire decade pre covid but the Chinese Government expected that the next 20-30 years would average 8% and where making their plans based on that? A number they didnt hit ONCE after Xi took over to begin with ?

          • xiaohongshu [none/use name]@hexbear.netEnglish
            7·
            15 days ago

            It came from the very comprehensive study by the IAR (Institute of Advanced Research) macroeconomic group from the Shanghai University of Finance and Economics at the end of 2020.

            Using their advanced model (IAR-CMM), anticipating quick Covid recovery and various macroeconomic policies proposed by the government, of all the 8 scenarios, the most pessimistic calculation was 7% real (not nominal, which should be higher) GDP growth by 2021, the most optimistic being 10%. I am actually being conservative with 8%, taking a middle number from all the simulated scenarios.

            Again, this was a very comprehensive study that took into account almost all the important parameters, including external trade, supply-side reform, market order, domestic uncertainty, local government debt, corporate debt leverage, US-China relations, global pandemic development and domestic uncertainty, etc. If nothing else, it’s very good summary on the many different facades of China’s economy, at least up to that point in 2020.

            The point is just how difficult it is to forecast future economic growth, and especially the huge and unexpectedly prolonged disruption under Covid pandemic.

            • geikei [none/use name]@hexbear.netEnglish
              2·
              15 days ago

              Predicting a bounce back GDP growth in the immediate post zero covid years of 7%+ is very different from predicting a sustained 8% growth for 20-40 years? In what page is the latter forecast made ?