The argument for current LLM AIs leading to AGI has always been that they would spontaneously develop independent reasoning, through an unknown emergent property that would appear as they scale. It hasn’t happened, and there’s no sign that it will.
That’s a dilemma for the big AI companies. They are burning through billions of dollars every month, and will need further hundreds of billions to scale further - but for what in return?
Current LLMs can still do a lot. They’ve provided Level 4 self-driving, and seem to be leading to general-purpose robots capable of much useful work. But the headwinds look ominous for the global economy, - tit-for-tat protectionist trade wars, inflation, and a global oil shock due to war with Iran all loom on the horizon for 2025.
If current AI players are about to get wrecked, I doubt it’s the end for AI development. Perhaps it will switch to the areas that can actually make money - like Level 4 vehicles and robotics.
Google, Microsoft and Amazon are all making heavy investments in nuclear power to run more GPUs. These aren’t the moves of companies who are about to taper off utilization.
Heavy investments is a strong term for modest hedges around SMRs.
Tens of millions is low risk pocket change compared to the billions burned running the things constantly.
The problem is they’re all playing chicken with each other.
OpenAI will never back down. The question is will Google, Microsoft or Amazon blink first
MS is going to relight Three Mile Island, not an SMR.
They don’t expect to taper off. But they might just be burning money.
They might be, but that won’t slow them down for at least the next gen of NVIDIA hardware.