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It’s wishful thinking. The loudest advocates telling us that AGI is coming are the LLM hyperscalers that need AGI to happen before the bubble bursts.
It very much is coming and I’ve yet to hear a single good argument for why it wouldn’t be. The only thing I’m sceptical of is the time scale. People are saying it’s just a few years away but they couldn’t possibly know that. For all I know it could be 5 decades away - but it’s still coming.
My hope is that the LLM bubble bursts, we enter another AI winter, and then some researcher develops it but [unrealistic wishful thinking begins here] they learn from the mistakes of the LLM hype and don’t let it get taken over by folks like that openAI guy.
