Here’s a full version of Mr. Dalio’s words, and below is a summary. Also, he’s written several books on this topic, more info here.
While tariffs and their market impacts dominate headlines, the deeper, more critical issue is the breakdown of the global monetary, political, and geopolitical order—a rare, once-in-a-lifetime shift driven by unsustainable debt, inequality, and deglobalization.
Key forces at play:
Monetary/Economic Order Collapse: Unsustainable debt imbalances (e.g., U.S. overborrowing, China over-lending) are forcing a restructuring of global trade and capital flows.
Domestic Political Fragmentation: Rising inequality and populism are eroding democracies, paving the way for autocratic leadership.
Geopolitical Power Shifts: The U.S.-led multilateral order is fading, replaced by unilateralism and conflict (trade wars, tech wars).
Climate & Tech Disruptions: Natural disasters and AI will further destabilize economies and international relations.
Why focus on these? Tariffs are symptoms, not causes. History shows such imbalances lead to depressions, wars, and new orders. Policymakers must prepare for radical measures (debt defaults, capital controls) as the old system unravels.
Policymakers must prepare for radical measures (debt defaults, capital controls) as the old system unravels.
Unfortunately our policy makers are all a mix of crooks, con men/women, and several people who are just plain stupid.
Ray’s been talking about little waves and big waves in finance for a long time now.
There is no such thing as a “deglobalized world” and likely won’t be until maybe the bombs have fallen and our technology is no longer capable of world spanning trade. Learning from history is of course a great idea but literally trying to replicate policy that worked only when countries where flattened by millions of tons of explosives is at best naïve and at worst a terrible omen.
