• EllenKelly [comrade/them]@hexbear.net
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    6 hours ago

    So there’s a 72 hr window for all the hostages POWs to be released, and it MUST be adhered to, but israel cant release hostages taken from international waters 4 days ago?

    interesting

  • dead [he/him]@hexbear.netOP
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    12 hours ago

    I’m imagining possible outcomes and the implications, least likely to most likely in my opinion.

    Scenario 1) Trump actually forces Netanyahu to stop attacking Gaza. I think this one is the least likely because Trump supports the Gaza genocide. If this happens, I think it would mean that Democrats could have forced Israel the whole time and simply didn’t want to. The next thing that should be asked in this situation, is when will Netanyahu be prosecuted.

    Scenario 2) Trump tries to force Israel to stop attacking Gaza, but they keep attacking Gaza anyway. The dog is off the leash. This would indicate that the US is losing global power.

    Scenario 3) Israel agrees to the ceasefire only until Hamas gives back the captured Israeli forces and then continues the Genocide in Gaza. This would be the US being complicit in Israel breaking the deal. This would be a repeat of the Edan Alexander deal, where Hamas gave back Edan Alexander and then Trump broke the deal by not lifting the aid blockade.

    Scenario 4) Trump lies and says that Hamas backed out of the deal at the last moment. Hamas did not back out of the deal. Israel uses this as an excuse to escalate attacks on Gaza. This would be a continuation of the trend of past ceasefire agreements. Hamas accepts the deal and then Israel sabotages the deal, US blames Hamas.

    • Lussy [any, hy/hym]@hexbear.net
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      11 hours ago

      This is an attempt to sell pre October 7 genocide conditions to the general public, which isn’t even possible given the death and destruction already committed.

      The region has been fully subjugated and turned into rubble. This is in essence the first start of the annexation.

    • MarmiteLover123 [comrade/them, any]@hexbear.net
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      11 hours ago

      The big difference between this proposal and previous ones is the buy in from the Arab governments/regimes. Everyone from Qatar to Turkey to Egypt have signed onto this latest plan. Even Indonesia (majority Muslim but not Arab) have signed on. That was missing at the beginning of 2025. Israel has already reportedly shifted to “defensive actions only” in Gaza, whatever that means. I think there’s a chance this actually could "work’, if the Arab countries are prepared to put boots on the ground in Gaza as part of this plan. Arab boots on the ground is what the Trump administration has been gunning from since the beginning of the year, they didn’t have the buy in last time, but now they appear to have it.

      • Lussy [any, hy/hym]@hexbear.net
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        11 hours ago

        if the Arab countries are prepared to put boots on the ground in Gaza as part of this plan.

        I find this hard to believe. I would guess the Arab nations are signing on because it’s political suicide for them to be shown not doing anything publicly.

        • MarmiteLover123 [comrade/them, any]@hexbear.net
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          11 hours ago

          Further Israeli withdrawal hinges on the “International Stabilisation Force” (ISF, in other words the Arab forces) occupying Gaza, according to the public press release of the 20 point plan. As it’s written, the only way for the IDF to withdraw further is to hand over territory to the ISF. It’s very easy to see how this can be used to pressure the Arab nations into upholding their end of the bargain. If they don’t step up, Israel will not withdraw.

          1. The United States will work with Arab and international partners to develop a temporary International Stabilization Force (ISF) to immediately deploy in Gaza. The ISF will train and provide support to vetted Palestinian police forces in Gaza, and will consult with Jordan and Egypt who have extensive experience in this field. This force will be the long-term internal security solution. The ISF will work with Israel and Egypt to help secure border areas, along with newly trained Palestinian police forces. It is critical to prevent munitions from entering Gaza and to facilitate the rapid and secure flow of goods to rebuild and revitalize Gaza. A deconfliction mechanism will be agreed upon by the parties.
          1. Israel will not occupy or annex Gaza. As the ISF establishes control and stability, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) will withdraw based on standards, milestones, and timeframes linked to demilitarization that will be agreed upon between the IDF, ISF, the guarantors, and the Unites States, with the objective of a secure Gaza that no longer poses a threat to Israel, Egypt, or its citizens. Practically, the IDF will progressively hand over the Gaza territory it occupies to the ISF according to an agreement they will make with the transitional authority until they are withdrawn completely from Gaza, save for a security perimeter presence that will remain until Gaza is properly secure from any resurgent terror threat.
          1. In the event Hamas delays or rejects this proposal, the above, including the scaled-up aid operation, will proceed in the terror-free areas handed over from the IDF to the ISF.
  • Awoo [she/her]@hexbear.net
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    12 hours ago

    Fuck it. Let him cook.

    If this does end give him a peace prize. Not like a give a fuck about who gets them anyway.

    Israel don’t want this so I think they’ll do something to torpedo it, but that’s not bad for the resistance really. If Israel piss off Trump that’s only a good thing given what a fucking bitch he is to people that piss him off.

    • OptimusSubprime [he/him, they/them]@hexbear.net
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      9 hours ago

      Israel don’t want this so I think they’ll do something to torpedo it, but that’s not bad for the resistance really. If Israel piss off Trump that’s only a good thing given what a fucking bitch he is to people that piss him off.

      Except that pissing off Isn’treal usually results in people being JFK’d. I fully think that if it becomes Trump vs Pissreal, they will assassinate him. Vance too if Thiel isn’t totally down with the zionazi project. lathe-of-heaven

    • Lussy [any, hy/hym]@hexbear.net
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      11 hours ago

      Fuck it. Let him cook.

      If this does end give him a peace prize. Not like a give a fuck about who gets them anyway.

      Jesus, calm down until a single child has been saved

  • CleverOleg [he/him]@hexbear.net
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    10 hours ago

    My current opinion is that Netanyahu is the only person in Israeli leadership other than Ben-Gvir and Smotrich (or any of the other psychotic, irrational Nazis) who wants this to continue. I do believe in theory that he will continue a state of war to avoid going to prison, even if it harms Israel.

    So the question I don’t know the answer to is: can Netanyahu torpedo the deal even against Trump and the entirety of Israeli leadership? If so…

    I sometimes try to think about Palestine as a board game - not to trivialize it, but to try and anticipate what Israel will do while feeling detached from it. If I was in charge of the forces of evil (Israel), I would want to wrap up Gaza yesterday, even if it meant a less than optimal deal. I would be focused on the fact that I have until January 2029 to get Miriam Adelson her ROI on her bribe to Trump. Make sure he’s on board with the annexation of the West Bank - tell him I’ll give him anything he wants in the ceasefire so gets his Nobel. Then spend the next ~3 years pouring all your resources into planning on West Bank annexation by the end of Trump’s 2nd term.

    The fact that Israel doesn’t seem to be thinking this way at all I think says something, I’m just not sure what.

  • oscardejarjayes [comrade/them]@hexbear.net
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    11 hours ago

    If he actually pulls this off (big if), he was genuinely the harm reduction candidate. Stopping a genocide outweighs many of the horrible things he’s doing now, just like how America did many terrible things in WWII, but their fighting and supplies helped win the war.

    • dead [he/him]@hexbear.netOP
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      11 hours ago

      I don’t think that you can say that Trump stopped a genocide even if a ceasefire happens. Trump created the GHF fake aid sites which have been opening fire on starving Gazans and killing 30-70 Gazans almost every day since around May 30. Trump promised to lift the aid blockade on Gaza and then didn’t and now it is said that Gaza has a famine. Even if the aid blockade is lifted right now, Gazans still face refeeding syndrome and birth defects from famine. Trump is implicated in the Genocide. Trump’s presidential cabinet was handpicked by Zionists.

      I think it’s pointless to consider whether a Democrat president would have been less harmful. Democrats certainly didn’t campaign on being less harmful. However Trump has certainly caused a significant amount of harm.

      Also even if Trump gets a ceasefire. Will Israel be held accountable? Will Israel face de-nazification? Trump won’t do this. If Israel is not denazified, then they will continue to bomb 7+ other countries in the region.

  • CerebralHawks@lemmy.dbzer0.com
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    13 hours ago

    If Donald Trump can fix the Middle East, that is what he will be remembered for, for centuries. That’s how important it is.

    I do not believe that good and smart people can do it, let alone Trump, but it he’s anywhere near sincere in his efforts, credit where it’s due (but in the context of all the horrible things he’s done).

    • purpleworm [none/use name]@hexbear.net
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      6 hours ago

      Beyond the first sentence

      I do not believe that good and smart people can do it, let alone Trump,

      Most of this shit isn’t about being a saint and genius, it’s about beating back western powers, their rabid dog, and the other sickos like Saudi Arabia. Literally just do that and things will get astonishingly better over time even if serious problems will remain. Letting countries exist with minimal threat but also minimal ability to militarily abuse other countries will trend in the direction of the development of diplomatic cooling, economic development, secularization, etc., and people will be better off, even if the class war must still be waged.

    • WildWeezing420 [he/him]@hexbear.net
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      12 hours ago

      ‘fix the middle east’?

      It was fine until colonizers broke it. The only way to fix it is for colonizers and occupiers to all leave and never come back, including Israelis. This isn’t a 3000 year war, it started with Zionist terrorism in the British Mandate of Palestine and will end once Palestine is free.

      America (and therefore Trump) are the biggest sponsors of this terrorism and occupation, not a neutral third party arbiter. They are the muscle and money behind the genocide. Trump is not “fixing” anything unless he completely commits imperial suicide and dismantles the occupying genocidal force that he commands, which he will never do intentionally - but maybe he’s stupid enough to do it through repeated strategic fumbles.

      Americans need to leave Syria. They need to leave Iraq. They need to not re-entre Afghanistan. They need to close down their network of 300 bases. They need to stop sponsoring ISIS and Al Qaeda and using them as mercenaries. This is what is breaking the Middle East.

      Saying that Trump is going to “fix” the middle east is like saying that an Abusive Spouse is going to “fix” the abused victim. The only thing the abuser needs to do is leave, and maybe be placed in jail for their crimes if we’re lucky. He could “fix” the middle east by ending all funding and weapon shipments and military support for Israel and sanctioning them, the cancerous “country” would evaporate into thin air within the decade. But he won’t.

    • KobaCumTribute [she/her]@hexbear.net
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      13 hours ago

      Getting Israel to move from the “consumed in a bloodthirsty frenzy of destruction, immolating themselves and everyone they lay hands on” stage to the “consolidating the freshly stolen territory and recovering from the human costs of whipping the entire population into a deranged genocidal rage for a multi-year orgy of violence and horror” stage so the stolen land can be profiteered on with real estate scams isn’t “fixing” shit. Like maybe it’s half a step back from trying to keep the frenzied genocidal sprint stage going full blast, but that’s assuming that that is even what’s going on, and this isn’t just another short pause to regroup, resupply, and plan out the next wave of genocidal horror.

      The middle east also isn’t some naturally intractable mess, the current state of things is more or less entirely down to several 100% modern problems: settler colonialists committing genocide for personal profit, Saudi Arabia boosting and exporting their personal brand of theocratic chauvinist heresy, and the US funding and arming Saudi-aligned jihadists to use as disposable and deniable mercenaries in conflicts throughout Africa, the Middle East, and Asia.

      • WildWeezing420 [he/him]@hexbear.net
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        13 hours ago

        It’s MLK’s white moderate

        I have been gravely disappointed with the white moderate who is more devoted to ‘order’ than to justice; who prefers a negative peace which is the absence of tension to a positive peace which is the presence of justice.

        The type to believe a negative peace = actual peace, when the victims of genocide are so suppressed that they surrender, or when ethnic cleansing is completed and there’s nobody left to resist. That’s “peace”