grandepequeno [he/him]

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Joined 2 years ago
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Cake day: September 24th, 2023

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  • pseudorca Some people expect the next pope to follow in Francis’ steps since he appointed so many electors. I hope they’re right, but I just read some counter-arguments in this piece which I think are worth sharing.

    It is difficult to predict the outcome of the forthcoming conclave. However, there are strong reasons to believe that Francis’s successor will be a more conservative pope. First, his pontificate has been highly transformative, both institutionally and in its public messaging, making it unlikely that the cardinals will choose another candidate equally inclined toward reform. The Church tends to resist radical and sustained change.

    Perhaps more importantly, although the Sistine Chapel has thick walls, the Vatican is invariably influenced by global political trends. With Trump in the White House, and with the far right on the rise worldwide, electing another pope as progressive as Francis would be swimming against the tide – and the Vatican has a long history of adapting to changing realities rather than confronting them. That is why the next fumata blanca will likely announce a more conservative figure than Jorge Bergoglio. Indeed, the mood of the moment suggests that he may well be a stark antithesis to the ‘leftist’ pope.

    So the arguments are that, since Francis was a transformative pope, it’s not likely that they’ll elect another pope that’s transformative in the same manner since that would entail too much transformation for the church too quickly.

    And that, in 2013 electing a progressive pope seemed apt for the time, but in 2025 with the far-right on the rise, it would be against the current trend, so it’s likely they’ll ride the wave and elect a conservative or even, god help up, a far right pope.

    Hope whoever wrote this is wrong, whatever one may think about the catholic church, it was politically useful for me to be able to say “well the pope agrees with me, you brain dead warmonger” whenever I argued with liberals who wanted to keep the ukraine war going.

    Also something I found interesting in the piece.

    As Gerard O’Connell recounts in his book on the 2013 conclave, The Election of Pope Francis, the then-Archbishop of Buenos Aires gained popularity among prelates for his strong stance on financial transparency – a sensitive issue following the Vatileaks revelations.

    So the electors in 2013 warmed up to Frances not so much because of his leftish credentials but moreso for his anti-corruption stance. This checks with the idea I’ve heard that since he only had 1 lung, they probably didn’t expect him to live that long and to change anything.