Image is of Gazans breaking their fast with the Iftar meal during the ongoing Ramadan.

Due to a request by @miz@hexbear.net, this thread’s COTW is Qatar.


The ceasefire deal broke down early last week after Israel unilaterally changed the terms of the agreement and then blamed Hamas for not meeting them. Violence against civilians has rapidly accelerated to pre-ceasefire levels, with many hundreds dead already, aid once again cut off, and Israeli soldiers once again entering and occupying the attritional labyrinth that is Gaza.

I’m not yet in a position to make any solid predictions or analysis, as the geopolitical situation in and around Israel has changed fairly substantially over the last 6 months; in some ways benefiting Israel, and in other ways not. We know for sure how Hamas and Ansarallah are reacting (thankfully, with open hostility to both Israel and the United States), but the state of Hezbollah has been a giant question mark for months now, and precisely what Iran plans to do (beyond the usual level of supplying weaponry and intelligence to all the allies it can) is unknown. Syria will be almost certainly be a big wildcard, and we’ll have to see if the compradors in Damascus can weather the storm.


Last week’s thread is here.
The Imperialism Reading Group is here.

Please check out the HexAtlas!

The bulletins site is here. Currently not used.
The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.

Israel-Palestine Conflict

If you have evidence of Israeli crimes and atrocities that you wish to preserve, there is a thread here in which to do so.

Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:

UNRWA reports on Israel’s destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.

English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.

English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Sources:

Defense Politics Asia’s youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don’t want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it’s just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists’ side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR’s former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR’s forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster’s telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a ‘propaganda tax’, if you don’t believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:

Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.


  • mkultrawide [any]@hexbear.net
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    Update from Ryan Grim on the SECDEF Signals/Groyper Group Chat/Washington WhatsApps:

    So the leak was either intentional by the National Security Advisor, or he didn’t realize what he was doing by sharing a Signal group chat with Goldberg. Waltz is a retired colonel who served with the Green Berets. I wonder if parts of the Pentagon are in revolt/trying to reign Trump in. Goldberg is burning a very high placed source by running this story.

    • MarmiteLover123 [comrade/them, any]@hexbear.net
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      Goldberg is a long time establishment journalist, he was one of the first to run the “Iraq has WMDs” stories. So that makes sense. This could also be used now to try get an excuse to remove Waltz. Trump has already sidelined him on Ukraine, so they could use this to get rid of him. Waltz leaking information to a rube like Goldberg might be the end of his presence in the Trump administration.

      Also after reading the full article on The Atlantic, it doesn’t seem as if there was much classified information released. Discussions on the strike packages and weapons used, what was hit, and discussing which leaders were killed, is quite an open issue. Open source analysts do that all the time. Obviously Hegseth discussing it on signal just before, during, or after the strikes is a different matter, but it’s not like he just leaked the entire US warplan to the group chat. All the truly top secret stuff was discussed on the “high side”, and not on the signal group chat, according to the article. So Goldberg saying that the war plans were texted to him is pushing it slightly.

      • mkultrawide [any]@hexbear.net
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        3 months ago

        I didn’t read the article, but according to Ken Klippenstein, Goldberg said he held stuff back that might have “harmed” the US if our “adversaries” gold a hold of it. Basically just enough was released to probably get Waltz dismissed. Could have been a setup/canary trap? Goldberg’s connections to the IDF make this interesting, and again, kind of crazy to burn your source, the National Security Advisor, instead of keeping that info flowing for the next four years. Maybe he just figured someone was going to see his number on the group chat and figure it out eventually?

  • MarmiteLover123 [comrade/them, any]@hexbear.net
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    The latest screenshot from the signal group chat seems to have dropped, and as expected, it is not as juicy as Goldberg made it out to be. Still pretty juicy, but not super detailed.

    It basically states: we will attack Yemen at this time with these planes, texted out as the first planes took off. It doesn’t state what weapons the F-18s will be using or even what locations they will be targeting/who they will be targeting. The only mention of a specific munition is the Tomahawk cruise missile. While it is extremely foolish (from a US perspective) for Hegseth to type this out on a signal group chat 2 hours before the first bombs dropped, it wasn’t as if he was giving out the full war plan. It’s not as if the Yemenis could have done much with this information either, this message was sent out as the first F-18s took off, so there’s little “advanced warning” factor, this message went out as the F-18s flew towards Yemen. Yemen or Iran should be able to detect launch movements themselves here.

    Don’t get me wrong it’s still incredibly foolish to type this out on a signal chat room, would highly likely be considered classified, but it’s not like Hegseth was saying “we will target this guy, at this time, at these co ordinates, using 4 AIM-154 JSOW glide bombs.”

    The interesting thing is that the US military still feels confident enough to fly MQ-9 Reaper drones over Yemen, despite over a dozen confirmed to have been shot down.

    Link to the full Atlantic article with the latest messages

  • Redcuban1959 [any]@hexbear.net
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    Renowned Japanese video game designer Hideki Kamiya has reflected on the recent Assassin’s Creed Shadows controversies by asserting that “normal people” don’t care about them. His remarks were offered alongside some high praise for the Assassin’s Creed Shadows development team.

    The latest entry in Ubisoft’s long-running series has been mired in controversy since its May 2024 reveal, which confirmed that the game would have a black protagonist, based on a real historical figure known as Yasuke. This fueled a lot of online vitriol, including cases of people vandalizing Yasuke’s Wikipedia page and Elon Musk declaring “DEI kills art” while referencing Assassin’s Creed Shadows.

    Famous Japanese game designer Hideki Kamiya has recently reflected on this state of affairs by stating that “a few super-intense people” made “a big fuss” about Assassin’s Creed Shadows. At the same time, the creator of Okami and Bayonetta believes that these detractors are simply a loud minority, having said as much in a March 24 tweet. Elaborating on this notion, Kamiya asserted that most “normal people” adopt an “it’s fine” stance when it comes to things like video game-related drama, noting that this phenomenon isn’t exclusive to the Assassin’s Creed Shadows controversies.

    • sexywheat [none/use name]@hexbear.net
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      3 months ago

      Fortunately for them they won’t have to. Why tf would Russia invade Poland?

      The euros are truly huffing their own farts if they think that. Seriously, no honest attempt has been made by the west to understand Russia’s motivation for the war in Ukraine.

      • Frank [he/him, he/him]@hexbear.net
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        The depths of anti-communist delusion are fully on display when Euros think that a fragmentary rump state can or would do what the USSR never attempted at the height of it’s global super-power

      • VILenin [he/him]@hexbear.net
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        Western media has been inundated with asinine stories relating to hypothetical WWIII level events. It’s designed to sow fear, and should never be mistaken as having anything to do with reality

      • vegeta1 [he/him]@hexbear.net
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        3 months ago

        I’m curious too… Is there any indication that his ambitions lie beyond Ukraine? Like seriously apart from the vague so called election interference and so. Because geopolitical rivalry aside it would be a nightmarish endeavour

        • coolusername [none/use name]@hexbear.net
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          No. It’s just CIA propaganda. If you listen to any of their ambassadors talk they always talk about rule of law. Their grievances with the US is never ever mentioned in US media.

        • CleverOleg [he/him]@hexbear.net
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          People don’t realize just how long Putin has been at the helm - over 25 years now. And in that time, the only places Russia has ever invaded before Ukraine are I think Chechnya and Dagestan - both very small, both within the former USSR and for both it wasn’t as simple as “Putin grab land”, lots of other shit going on there. Given how long he’s been there if he’s bent on rolling the tanks through Eastern Europe he hasn’t shown any indication yet that he wants to do that. And the euros can’t even provide a coherent explanation of why Putin would want to take over the Baltics or Poland other than “he eeeevil and wants to rebuild the Russian empire!” Just completely decoupled from reality.

          Objectively, Europe is more likely to be invaded by the US than they are Russia.

          • vegeta1 [he/him]@hexbear.net
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            Seriously and conquering land is one thing. Holding on to them is anothet and europe is a whole lotta land. There is also the inni tinsy little matter in all these war games. I can’t put my finger on… Ah FUCKING NUKES.

            • dumpster_dove [he/him]@hexbear.net
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              Even annexing the whole Ukraine just isn’t a realistic option for Russia.

              Just imagine trying to do a “US in Afghanistan” but without the USD infinite money glitch, while NATO props up resistance fighters.

              • TheLastHero [he/him]@hexbear.net
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                I’d argue that’s better for russia long term over west Ukraine allowing NATO troops. The geography is way too yielding and it is WW3 waiting to happen. They really have to ensure demilitarization and neutrality if Ukraine is going to get out of this still independent.

            • Frank [he/him, he/him]@hexbear.net
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              The way so many American’s and Euros are just utterly indifferent to the existence of nukes and MAD is horrifying. They don’t view nukes as real things that are a factor in war and diplomacy, and if htey don’t believe in nukes in a real immediate way they might blithely use them, or provoke the use of them.

              • vegeta1 [he/him]@hexbear.net
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                I do not see these discussions. I always see navy etc scenarios none of the nuke discussions. Its always an afterthought for some reason.

      • YellowJackets2TheParish [they/them]@hexbear.net
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        Why tf would Russia invade Poland?

        There just so evil and orcish and Putin is the Jonkler he’s crazy but that’s okay NATO exists and would Article 5 a war so Putin will never try to invade but we have to be ready because he’s five seconds from invading Poland and Finland simultaneously.

        It’s simple really.

      • mkultrawide [any]@hexbear.net
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        “Hold out for X weeks until the Americans show up” is the strategic defense plan for a Russian invasion for pretty much every Baltic and Nordic state.

        • MarmiteLover123 [comrade/them, any]@hexbear.net
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          Not just the Baltics and Nordics, it’s been the plan for Europe and NATO since the start of the cold war lol. “We just need to hold the Soviets and their Warsaw Pact allies back until the Americans help us” was the old version.

      • sempersigh [he/him]@hexbear.net
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        I think they know it won’t happen but they still have to pretend that it’s a strong possibility because to say otherwise would imply that russia has an actual calculus for why it does anything instead of pure barbarity and malice

  • Redcuban1959 [any]@hexbear.net
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    I was checking Wikipedia’s page on Ukranian political parties, and for some parties they added this “Oligarch association” to them.

    Pro-Western sources have criticised Ukraine’s lack of political reform or action against corruption, and the influence of Ukrainian oligarchs on domestic and regional politics, particularly their links to Russia.

    Oligarchs were usually defined as businessmen with direct influence on both politics and the economy. During the 1990s, oligarchs emerged in Ukraine as politically-connected nouveau riche whose wealth came through ties to the corrupt — but democratically elected — government of Ukraine in its transition to a market economy. Later, numerous Ukrainian business people took control of a political party. The Party of Greens of Ukraine, Labour Ukraine and Social Democratic Party of Ukraine (united) are examples of this, while other oligarchs started new parties to gain seats and influence in the Verkhovna Rada (Ukrainian parliament).

    Various Western nations have raised national security concerns over the oligarchic kleptocracy since the early 2000s but these gained greater salience after the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine raised the national security implications of a great deal of money—sourced from Ukraine or Russia but spent in the West—finding its way into matters of national security.

    The oligarchs’ influence on the Ukrainian government was extreme. In 2011 some analysts and Ukrainian politicians believed that some Ukrainian businesses tycoons with “lucrative relations” with Russia were deliberately hindering Ukraine’s European Union integration.

    Zelensky’s Servant of the People has no “Oligarch association” tag, even though the page says Ukrainian oligarch Ihor Kolomoyskyi supported the party.

  • Redcuban1959 [any]@hexbear.net
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    Oscar-winning Palestinian director attacked by Jewish settlers and arrested, activists say - ABC News

    Article

    JERUSALEM – Israeli settlers beat up one of the Palestinian co-directors of the Oscar-winning film “No Other Land” in the occupied West Bank on Monday, and he was then detained by the Israeli military, activists on the scene said.

    Dozens of settlers attacked the Palestinian village of Susiya in the Masafer Yatta area, destroying property, said the activist group Center for Jewish Nonviolence.

    They attacked Hamdan Ballal, one of the documentary’s co-directors, leaving his head bleeding, the activists said. As he was being treated in an ambulance, soldiers detained him and a second Palestinian man, the group said. It said his whereabouts were now unknown.

    “No Other Land,” which won the Oscar this year for best documentary, chronicles the struggle by residents of Masafer Yatta to stop the Israeli military from demolishing their villages. It has two Palestinian co-directors, Ballal and Basel Adra, both residents of Masafar Yatta, and two Israeli directors, Yuval Abraham and Rachel Szor.

    • hexaflexagonbear [he/him]@hexbear.net
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      Did they intentionally invite the Atlantic guy lol, I don’t believe they’re actually that annoying an on message in private. And if they are: double wall.

      • mkultrawide [any]@hexbear.net
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        Some people are questioning if it’s some sort of coordinated “leak”, but I think people are overthinking it because they don’t want to imagine that the people controlling the nukes are stupid enough to just add a journalist to this group.

        Only two things I can think of are 1) they want to bait the Yemenis into striking the Saudis, which I think would be a bad idea given the Saudis have basically washed their hands of the latest bombings, whereas the Emiratis, Bahrainis, and Qataris have been actively complicit or 2) they want the news story to be about how stupid they are for this leak instead of how they are bombing Yemen.

        No. 1 I guess is possible because I also think it would be a mistake for Ansarallah to strike a Saudi refinery versus a UAE or Bahraini one, but No. 2 doesn’t seem likely given that the US media is a barely covering this stuff anyways.

        Also, these sorts of corporate freaks absolutely do talk like this in work chats.

        • MarmiteLover123 [comrade/them, any]@hexbear.net
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          On the topic of point 2, it could be a deliberate leak to distract from the US moving more critical military assets to Diego Garcia for a potential attack on Yemen or Iran, which is happening right now. US media is barely covering the attacks, but a wider escalation could change that.

          • hexaflexagonbear [he/him]@hexbear.net
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            I don’t think that’s really it, when Bush started the invasion on Iraq in 2003 they timed the B2s to begin bombing as he was giving the speech. They’re not shy about this stuff. It’s also literally good media coverage, the media loves giving flattering coverage of missiles going off or bombers getting relocated. An administration would not distract from the best media coverage it will get all week.

            As for distracting Iran or Yemen, the whole point of the B2 is it doesn’t matter if you know it’s coming or not, see: Bush press conference.

          • mkultrawide [any]@hexbear.net
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            Distract who, though? I have no doubt that Iran and Yemen are aware of these movements, but I have a lot of doubt that the US media would have covered them.

      • Most corporate journos loyal to the regime are given some sort of direct line of contact to statesmen like Vance and Hesgeth, usually to get wind of a narrative to later dripfeed to the wider press and public. I’ve been convinced to the theory that Goldberg was indeed accidentally added, but only because these guys are tech illiterate morons with fat fingers who didn’t realise that one of them accidentally added their preferred media liaison before they start talking shop.

    • newmou [he/him]@hexbear.net
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      3 months ago

      How long will it be until we get leaks of shitty 2010 era memes these ghouls sent to each other over a group chat plotting a coup in Greenland or something

  • Awoo [she/her]@hexbear.net
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    These are the most incompetent idiots that the US has ever had.

    Trump administration accidentally texted secret bombing plans to a reporter

    https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2025/03/trump-administration-accidentally-texted-secret-bombing-plans-to-a-reporter/

    spoiler

    A prominent journalist knew the US military would start bombing Houthi targets in Yemen two hours before it happened on March 15 because top Trump administration officials accidentally included the reporter on a Signal text chain in which they discussed the war plan.

    Jeffrey Goldberg, editor-in-chief of The Atlantic magazine, described the surprising leak of sensitive military information in an article today. The National Security Council confirmed that the messages were real and said it is investigating how Goldberg was added to a thread in which the war information was discussed.

    “The world found out shortly before 2 p.m. eastern time on March 15 that the United States was bombing Houthi targets across Yemen,” Goldberg wrote. “I, however, knew two hours before the first bombs exploded that the attack might be coming. The reason I knew this is that Pete Hegseth, the secretary of defense, had texted me the war plan at 11:44 a.m. The plan included precise information about weapons packages, targets, and timing.”

    Goldberg’s article quotes numerous messages that appeared to come from Vice President JD Vance, Hegseth, and other Trump administration officials. Goldberg was first added to the text chain on March 11 by Michael Waltz, Trump’s national security adviser.

    Goldberg initially “didn’t find it particularly strange that he might be reaching out to me,” though he considered that “someone could be masquerading as Waltz in order to somehow entrap me.” But over the next few days, Goldberg became increasingly convinced that the messages were authentic. Vance: “I just hate bailing Europe out again”

    The text chat was labeled “Houthi PC small group,” and a message from Waltz indicated that he was convening a principals committee for top officials to discuss plans.

    “I had very strong doubts that this text group was real, because I could not believe that the national-security leadership of the United States would communicate on Signal about imminent war plans,” Goldberg wrote. “I also could not believe that the national security adviser to the president would be so reckless as to include the editor-in-chief of The Atlantic in such discussions with senior US officials, up to and including the vice president.”

    Using Signal in this way may have violated US law, Goldberg wrote. “Conceivably, Waltz, by coordinating a national-security-related action over Signal, may have violated several provisions of the Espionage Act, which governs the handling of ‘national defense’ information, according to several national-security lawyers interviewed by my colleague Shane Harris for this story,” he wrote.

    Signal is not an authorized venue for sharing such information, and Waltz’s use of a feature that makes messages disappear after a set period of time “raises questions about whether the officials may have violated federal records law,” the article said. Adding a reporter to the thread “created new security and legal issues” by transmitting information to someone who wasn’t authorized to see it, “the classic definition of a leak, even if it was unintentional,” Goldberg wrote.

    The account labeled “JD Vance” questioned the war plan in a Signal message on March 14. “I am not sure the president is aware how inconsistent this is with his message on Europe right now,” the message said. “There’s a further risk that we see a moderate to severe spike in oil prices. I am willing to support the consensus of the team and keep these concerns to myself. But there is a strong argument for delaying this a month, doing the messaging work on why this matters, seeing where the economy is, etc.”

    The Vance account also stated, “3 percent of US trade runs through the suez. 40 percent of European trade does,” and “I just hate bailing Europe out again.” The Hegseth account responded that “I fully share your loathing of European free-loading. It’s PATHETIC,” but added that “we are the only ones on the planet (on our side of the ledger) who can do this.”

    An account apparently belonging to Trump advisor Stephen Miller wrote, “As I heard it, the president was clear: green light, but we soon make clear to Egypt and Europe what we expect in return. We also need to figure out how to enforce such a requirement. EG, if Europe doesn’t remunerate, then what? If the US successfully restores freedom of navigation at great cost there needs to be some further economic gain extracted in return.” “Shocking recklessness”

    Goldberg was mostly convinced that the text chain was real before the detailed war plans were sent. “After reading this chain, I recognized that this conversation possessed a high degree of verisimilitude,” Goldberg wrote. “The texts, in their word choice and arguments, sounded as if they were written by the people who purportedly sent them, or by a particularly adept AI text generator. I was still concerned that this could be a disinformation operation, or a simulation of some sort. And I remained mystified that no one in the group seemed to have noticed my presence. But if it was a hoax, the quality of mimicry and the level of foreign-policy insight were impressive.”

    Goldberg declined to directly quote from the Hesgeth message containing war plans. “The information contained in them, if they had been read by an adversary of the United States, could conceivably have been used to harm American military and intelligence personnel, particularly in the broader Middle East, Central Command’s area of responsibility,” Goldberg wrote. “What I will say, in order to illustrate the shocking recklessness of this Signal conversation, is that the Hegseth post contained operational details of forthcoming strikes on Yemen, including information about targets, weapons the US would be deploying, and attack sequencing.”

    The Vance account responded, “I will say a prayer for victory,” and two other users posted prayer emoji, according to Goldberg. Shortly after the bombings, Waltz posted in the Signal chat that the operation was a success, and several members of the group responded positively.

    “The Signal chat group, I concluded, was almost certainly real,” Goldberg wrote. He removed himself from the group and contacted administration officials about the information leak. NSC reviewing how “inadvertent number was added”

    Ars contacted the White House today, and we quickly received a response containing two statements about the Goldberg incident. The statements are the same as those included in The Atlantic article.

    “This appears to be an authentic message chain, and we are reviewing how an inadvertent number was added to the chain,” said a statement attributed to a National Security Council spokesperson. “The thread is a demonstration of the deep and thoughtful policy coordination between senior officials. The ongoing success of the Houthi operation demonstrates that there were no threats to troops or national security.”

    The other statement came from a spokesperson for Vance. “The Vice President’s first priority is always making sure that the President’s advisers are adequately briefing him on the substance of their internal deliberations,” the statement said. “Vice President Vance unequivocally supports this administration’s foreign policy. The President and the Vice President have had subsequent conversations about this matter and are in complete agreement.”

    According to Goldberg, The Atlantic spoke with several former US officials who said they used Signal to share unclassified information, but “they knew never to share classified or sensitive information on the app, because their phones could have been hacked by a foreign intelligence service.”

    “I have never seen a breach quite like this,” Goldberg wrote. “It is not uncommon for national-security officials to communicate on Signal. But the app is used primarily for meeting planning and other logistical matters—not for detailed and highly confidential discussions of a pending military action. And, of course, I’ve never heard of an instance in which a journalist has been invited to such a discussion.”

    • Acute_Engles [he/him, any]@hexbear.net
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      Ignorant nothing ever happens Lurker here, can you explain why this tweet is an indication of nukes being dropped on Iran? Seems like that won’t be very good and would result in a lot of things happening

      • MarmiteLover123 [comrade/them, any]@hexbear.net
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        3 months ago

        It’s not an indication of nukes being dropped on Iran, but it is an indication that the assets which would be used to attack Iran (B-2 Spirit stealth bombers in Diego Garcia, 12 F-35As in Saudi Arabia) are being put in place to attack Iran. Such an attack would most likely be conventional, if it happens.

          • MarmiteLover123 [comrade/them, any]@hexbear.net
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            3 months ago

            In the unlikely (but becoming more likely) event that the US attacks Iran, and in the extremely unlikely event that it goes nuclear, the nuclear option would most likely come from submarines, in the form of submarine launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs). No one knows where the submarines are, and Iran would get minutes of warning, if that, from their over the horizon Ghadir early warning radars

            • CleverOleg [he/him]@hexbear.net
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              3 months ago

              Do you happen to have a sense of how far Iran could be from having a nuke that could credibly hit Tel Aviv? Enough to let the US know there’s a reasonable chance that a nuclear attack on Iran will likely destroy the Zionist entity?

              • MarmiteLover123 [comrade/them, any]@hexbear.net
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                3 months ago

                Iran has the delivery method (ballistic missiles that can penetrate Israeli air defences), but no nuclear devices/warheads, and not enough enriched uranium to make them. The problem for Iran is not a technical issue, they have the capability to make a nuclear weapon. The problem is that as soon as they start enrichment to the required levels and the USA becomes aware of it, it’s basically a massive sign saying “please attack Iran now”. So to create a nuclear weapon without being attacked, Iran essentially needs a “conventional form of MAD (Mutually Assured Destruction)” before making nuclear weapons, to prevent attacks on Iran itself while making nuclear weapons. North Korea had this in artillery aimed at Seoul. Or they need to secretly make hundreds of nuclear warheads without US and Israeli intelligence assets becoming aware of it. Both are huge challenges.

                • Boise_Idaho [null/void, any]@hexbear.net
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                  3 months ago

                  Iran essentially needs a “conventional form of MAD (Mutually Assured Destruction)” before making nuclear weapons, to prevent attacks on Iran itself while making nuclear weapons.

                  https://www.blackridgeresearch.com/blog/latest-list-of-top-largest-biggest-desalination-desal-water-treatment-plants-projects-israel

                  Their MAD can be “we’ll launch ballistic missiles at every single Israeli desalination plant if we get nuked.” Israeli desalination plants account for >75% of Israeli domestic water consumption. And most of the desalination comes from 5 facilities. That webpage is hyping up their desalination tech, but I’ve seen similar numbers from other sources.

                  I don’t think destroying every single plant would completely cut off their ability to have drinkable water since most of the water is going towards agriculture and they can always go back to pumping freshwater from the Sea of Galilee, but it will completely cripple the Zionist entity’s ability to grow crops.

                • edge [he/him]@hexbear.net
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                  3 months ago

                  North Korea had this in artillery aimed at Seoul

                  Does Iran not have the same in artillery aimed at Tel Aviv?

      • I dont think AmeriKKKa would be so stupid to do that but I could be convinced otherwise. They might do a strike on Isfahan or something (and tbf using something like a MOAB isn’t far off a tactical nuke in yield).

        Even if the nuke was effective in its target, Iran would immediately flatten Israel with the rest of its missile silos (the US would have to expend a lot of its stockpile to disable Iranian missile bases that number hundreds), and they still might have nuclear capabilities within a short time period with almost everyone in Iranian politics begging Khameini to lift his fatwa against Nuclear armament (he’d likely change face if the US nuked them).

        The B-2s are probably going to do something really stupid and aggressive against the houthis. Maybe even fly over Iran on the way to Yemen just to prove they can penetrate Iranian AA networks. But even for Trump and Hesgeth the crown jewel of nuking Iran without consequence is far from reality, and likely will never occur (without consequence) since the pact is due to be signed as you said.

  • mkultrawide [any]@hexbear.net
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    3 months ago

    New: Rubio confirmed he revoked the visa of the Tufts student and said he likely has revoked the visas of hundreds more. “We do it every day. Every time I find one of these lunatics, I take way their visas." The total # of revoked visas “might be more than 300 at this point." The student had co-authored an opinion column on Gaza in the student newspaper. Rubio was asked what she did to merit her visa being revoked, but did not offer specifics to her case, only suggesting that his criteria goes beyond writing columns.

    https://x.com/John_Hudson/status/1905315517642281226

    https://xcancel.com/John_Hudson/status/1905315517642281226

    Asked if they have any intelligence to suggest foreign backing for pro-Palestinian college protests, Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard tells Congress, “there are some assessments that reflect that and we can talk about that in the closed session.”

    https://x.com/kenklippenstein/status/1905111743711289707

    https://xcancel.com/kenklippenstein/status/1905111743711289707

    There is a clear moment here to cast Zionism as a direct threat to “American liberties” (I know a lot of people here won’t phrase like that but it is what it is) but I highly doubt any Democrats have the spine to push it.

    • Fishroot [none/use name]@hexbear.net
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      3 months ago

      Asked if they have any intelligence to suggest foreign backing for pro-Palestinian college protests, Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard tells Congress, “there are some assessments that reflect that and we can talk about that in the closed session.”

      A golden rule is that if they have so called concrete evidence, they would of blasted to everyone by now. The fact that it`s closed session, you know what you are dealing with.

      This is if they are courteous, Israel and the US are not even justifying blasting a hospital in Gaza this week.

  • SexMachineStalin [comrade/them]@hexbear.net
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    3 months ago

    The Constitutional Court has denied Afriforum’s appeal and stated that the song “Kill the Boer” does not constitute hate speech. L bozos

    packwatch anti-cracker-aktion

    Speaking of Bozo, as in the likely upcoming US ambassador, he’s probably going to declare the Constitutional Court and everyone of the 200,000 people living within a kilometer of the courthouse as Hamas

    Kill the Boer, Kill the Settler. BRRAAAT BRRRRAAAAAT

    Death to ameriKKKa